Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle

Bank Lending Behaviour over the Business Cycle in Iran

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...

Information, Expectations, and the Business Cycle

I investigate the ability of a noisy rational expectations model to generate plausible macroeconomic dynamics. The model allows for imperfect, heterogeneous information, and signal extraction from endogenous variables. Aggregate shocks are not directly observable. Instead, private agents and the central bank form inferences about aggregate shocks based on their observations of endogenous variab...

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending on Economic Growth Over the Business Cycle: Application of Markov Switching Models

This paper is  investigated four subject with uses iranian economic data and using the Markov-Switching model during the period (1369: 3-1393: 4), So that: (a) were Examined impact of  the positive and negative Fiscal  shocks on Iran economic growth ( B) the Hypothesis  impact of negative shocks is greater than a positive shock was tested. (C) were tested the impact of government expenditure (f...

Business Cycle Features In The Iranian Economy

Business Cycle Amplification with Heterogeneous Expectations

This paper studies the implications for business cycle dynamics of heterogeneous expectations in a stochastic growth model. The assumption of homogeneous, rational expectations is replaced with a heterogeneous expectations model where a fraction of agents hold rational expectations and the remaining fraction adopt parsimonious forecasting models that are, in equilibrium, optimal within a restri...